In early May 2017, the price of black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) continued to rise. April 5 price of about 77,000 yuan / ton, after all the way up, as of May 5 price 84000 yuan / ton, or 9.09%.

    Macro news:

    [International] global tungsten consumption of carbide products accounted for 60% of the overall demand in the tungsten occupy a dominant position. Tungsten demand corresponding to the project, mining, automotive, oil and gas and other industries more closely linked to the industry, the overall downstream demand by the industrial economy to pick up. 12 years - the first half of 16 years, oil and gas mining and mining industry equipment continued to decline in the trend, and since the end of 16, by the cycle of commodity prices to pick up, equipment spending and shipments are the bottom of the rise. It is expected that the growth demand of downstream tungsten is expected to be positive, and the improvement of supply and demand pattern will be on the sidelines.

    [Domestic] tungsten market is relatively low, in the supply and demand margin improvement situation, the accumulation of historical surplus and storage and storage generated by the continued inventory, inventory pressure to reduce. If environmental regulation is normalized, tungsten ore production will be further maintained in a controlled state, supporting price increases. Tungsten concentrate and other product prices, with the mine resources will directly benefit enterprises, part of the mine production to profit. Concerned about the large scale tungsten concentrate production, resource reserves rich Xiamen tungsten industry, Luoyang molybdenum and other subject, which Xiamen tungsten industry three mines currently annual output of about 12,000 tons, recoverable resources of more than 800,000 tons of metal; Industry 6 years tungsten concentrate production more than 10,000 tons, associated with tungsten cost advantage.

    China's nickel ore and bauxite imports are expected to increase in the next few months; large nickel miners in the Philippines: China's demand is expected to support nickel prices; global Ferronickel Group to send nickel ore to China; 20-17 years, the global nickel market supply shortage of 20,000 tons; Vale in the first quarter of 2017 nickel production fell 14.0%; Tanzania ban some mineral resources exports.

    Forecast:

    We believe that the current tungsten has entered the 8.5-9 million / ton reasonable price center. Since the end of March, tungsten product prices continued to rise, May 3 tungsten ore concentrate price of 65% has reached 84,000 yuan / ton, compared with the end of March rose nearly 1 million / ton. The current round of tungsten prices rose to benefit from purchasing and storage and supply shrinkage, the cost of about 75,000 yuan / ton of 20,000 tons of inventory is digested, the price repression factor disappeared; remaining inventory costs 90,000 yuan / ton; short-term good tungsten concentrate The price back to the industry-weighted production line near the line that 85,000 yuan / ton. Further rise in prices will face the risk of mine re-production and high-cost social stock release.